Do Stocks Always Go Up? The Truth That Will Surprise You

You've probably heard this:

"Stocks return an average of 10% per year."

Yes, that's true. And at the same time, it's very misleading.

Let's talk about what's really going on, without the complexity and investment fog.

10% Per Year? ...Only on Paper

Imagine a hospital.

The average temperature of all patients is 98.6°F. Great, right? Except one has a 107°F fever and the other is... dead.

The average checks out. Reality doesn't.

And that's exactly how stocks work.

Yes, US stocks (S&P 500) have returned roughly 10% annually over the last 100 years. But do you know how many times the return was between 8-12%?

Only 8 times in 100 years.

Most of the time, it looks like this:

Year	Return
1933	+54%
1995	+38%
2008	-37%
2022	-18%

One year you're a king. The next year you want to sell everything.

This is normal.

The Longer You Hold, The Less Stress

Now here's the important part.

Look at how your chances of profit grow when you simply hold your investment:

How Long You Hold	Chance of Profit
1 day	53% (coin flip)
1 year	74%
5 years	88%
10 years	95%
20 years	100%

Yes, you read that right.

In the last 100 years, there is not a single 20-year period where you would have lost money on the S&P 500.

Wars, crises, bubbles, COVID... All survived.

Time is stronger than any panic.

One Image That Says It All

Short-term: chaos

S&P 500 Short Term

One day. One month. Red numbers, panic, uncertainty...

Long-term: growth

S&P 500 Long Term

Ten years. Fifty years. Green numbers, patience, wealth. The more you "zoom out," the clearer you see: Long-term, the market grows.

As mentioned in other articles, those who are rewarded are the patient ones who can simply wait.

What If You Invest at the Worst Possible Moment?

Imagine you have really bad luck.

March 2000 - dot-com bubble

You invest $10,000
Market drops 50%
The 2008 crisis hits
You wait 13 years

Today? Over $70,000

October 2007 - before the financial crisis

Investment of $10,000
Drop of 57%
Recovery takes 5.5 years

Today? $45,000

February 2020 - right before COVID

Drop of 34% in a few weeks
Recovery in 5 months

Today? $18,500

Even the unluckiest investor eventually made money. All it took was not panicking.

The Biggest Mistake: Selling at the Bottom

All these returns only apply to those who held.

Crisis	Held	Sold in Fear
Dot-com	$70,000	$5,100
2008	$45,000	$4,300

Once you sell, the loss is permanent.

That's why Buffett says:

"I lost half. But I didn't sell anything."

Until you sell, you haven't lost anything.

Invest All at Once, or Gradually?

The data tells us clearly: Investing all at once works out better in 68% of cases.

But...

Regular investing has one big advantage: peace of mind.

What works best?

You have nerves of steel -> invest immediately
You're scared -> spread it over several months
You don't have savings -> invest regularly from your paycheck

The best strategy is the one you can actually stick to.

What to Remember

1. Stocks don't always go up. Drops are normal. 2. Long-term, they do grow. Historically, always. 3. Time is your greatest ally. 4. The worst thing is panic and selling. 5. The best move is to start and stay the course.

If you have questions, email me at vymerd@gmail.com.